Whether in the camp that deems it a gambling product, event derivative, financial instrument, or some other classification, it’s hard to deny that the recent gain in traction for prediction markets is unprecedented when compared to similar commodities. Millions of Americans have developed a thirst for trading on the outcomes of future events, from international elections and war to weather and what celebrities will wear on the next red carpet. But as with any activity of chance that balances risk with the possibility of reward, the potential for addictive behavior among vulnerable participants is ever-present. More than a year since prediction market platforms added sports trading to their offering, there has been a sharp rise in search for insight into what some are calling prediction market addiction.
To be clear, prediction market addiction is not listed as a formal diagnosis in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5). Neither is gambling addiction. However, thousands of Americans are referring to unhealthy involvement accordingly. This is confirmed by referencing the following summary of search terms being reported by both Google / Gemini AI and ChatCPT.
Here is what Google / Gemini reports, per largely populated U.S. city and state:
Source: Google Keyword Research Tool
*The average monthly searches occur per largely populated U.S. city (e.g. Los Angeles) and state (e.g. New York), indicating a nationwide volume into the thousands. The +∞ (infinity) symbol generally indicates an extremely high, near-unlimited growth in search volume.
Here is what ChatGPT reports, nationwide:
Source: ChatGPT Keyword Research Tool
Do the individuals (and their loved ones) behind the above queries care about what is or isn’t appropriate in the lexicon of mental and behavioral health diagnostics? Presumably, they are concerned about whether or not their wellbeing is being compromised, and if so, wonder if therapeutic intervention is required to bring balance back to their lives. That’s the motivation behind creating the following list of behaviors and consequences. If you (or a loved one) exhibit a combination of three or more of the one-dozen items listed below, an assessment from a professional who specializes in treating behavioral addictions relating to digital dependencies is strongly recommended.
Note: To reiterate, while individuals use the term “addiction” to describe their situation, what they are likely experiencing is unhealthy behavior linked to underlying mental health issues that can be effectively addressed by a qualified clinician. The potentially stigmatic term is only referenced in this resource to reach those who need support, through the same words they use to identify their own struggle with prediction markets. Learn more about our counseling services related to prediction market trading here.
12 Signs and Symptoms of Addictive Behavior Related to Online Prediction Markets (and where to get help to quit)
1. You are in debt from prediction market trading
The average male problem gambler debt is between $55,000 and $90,000 (view statistics). Meanwhile, reports and case studies of problematic day trading indicate that debt amounts vary widely, with cases often showing six-figure losses for individuals with severe issues. Data regarding average debt from unhealthy prediction market trading may become available as research is conducted in the months and years to come. Regardless, consistent financial strain as a result of involvement is a common sign that you may have a problem.
2. You borrow money to cover losses from prediction market trades
If you have borrowed money on more than one occasion from loved ones, friends, coworkers (et cetera) to make trades, you may have an unhealthy relationship with the activity.
3. You resort to theft to cover losses from prediction market trades
If you have stolen, embezzled, or committed fraud to fund trades on prediction market platforms, intervention is likely required.
4. You chase prediction market trading losses with more trades
You engage in emotional, high-risk behavior where you increase amounts traded and/or more rapidly make trades to recover funds lost on previous, incorrect predictions. This behavior is often driven by the fallacy that a big win (a highly successful trade) is due, although it often causes further financial instability, stress, and anxiety.
5. You lie to friends and loved ones about engaging with prediction markets
If you have lied, and continue to lie, to friends and loved ones about prediction market trading after indicating that you were going to take a break, you may have a problem.
6. You constantly think about, and talk about, prediction markets
Prediction markets consume your daily thoughts, and you struggle to maintain conversations with friends and family without discussing trades and perceived opportunities to make money on the platforms.
7. You trade in greater amounts or frequency to maintain the same “rush”
The dopamine release that you once experienced with small and less consequential trading values has become diluted. You now need to make larger, riskier trades to attain that rush. You may also trade more often and with greater frequency to maintain the dopamine release your brain now craves.
8. You have lost interest in healthy activities and hobbies you once enjoyed
If you have sidelined healthy activities (outdoor recreation, etc.) and hobbies that you once found great pleasure in, to primarily focus on prediction market trading, you may have a problem.
9. You engage in prediction market trading to escape boredom
If engagement with online prediction markets is your consistent go-to to deal with feelings of boredom, you may have an issue.
10. You engage in prediction market trading to cope with negative emotions
If engagement with online prediction markets is a primary coping mechanism to deal with anxiety, stress, depression, or some other mental health concern, counseling intervention may be required.
11. You get irritable and anxious when not able to view options and make trades
If you experience feelings of irritability, anger, anxiousness, and stress when not able to get online to access prediction markets, you may have a problem.
12. Prior attempts to take a break have proven unsuccessful
Where to Get Support
Ready to get help? Want to learn more about where you stand with respect to your behavior on prediction markets and possibly other similar activities? Click below or call for a FREE assessment. Kindbridge counselors specialize in treating unhealthy gambling and trading behavior along with cooccurring mental health issues.
Insurance and direct billing available for ongoing counseling.