CONFIDENTIAL HELP LINE
Next to Utah, Hawaii has the most strict laws in the United States when it comes to gambling. Online and on-premises casino gaming, sports betting, and lottery are all unregulated and illegal. There is speculation (along with official proposals) that the state’s first retail casino may be included in the New Aloha Stadium Entertainment District (NASED) that is slated for opening in 2029, but opposition remains fierce. Casino proposals may go the way of sports betting bill (HB 1308) which passed the Senate with amendments in April 2025, but died on the conference committee floor after failing to reconcile differences between the House and Senate.
Meanwhile, stock trading is fully legal in Hawaii, just as it is in all 50 U.S. states. Hawaii residents can trade stocks, options, and other financial instruments through licensed brokerages, subject to federal and state securities laws enforced by the Hawaii Department of Commerce and Consumer Affairs (DCCA). The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) maintains exclusive jurisdiction over commodity futures, options, and swaps, including those sold in Hawaii. This is where things have become complicated over the last year-and-a-half, after prediction markets (regulated by the CFTC) started offering Hawaii the option to buy and sell contracts on the outcomes of sporting events. Suddenly, the line between sports betting and trading started to blur.
At the moment, residents of Hawaii cannot make an online bet on who will win between the Detroit Pistons and the Cleveland Cavaliers, but they can make an online trade on the win/loss outcome of the same game. It’s not just win/loss outcomes, as the sports category for Hawaii prediction markets offer trading options labelled as Props, Win Totals, and Futures, all of which are terms universally used across online sportsbook apps and websites. The words Moneyline and Spread also accompany prompts to trade on a given sporting event outcome.
From a leading prediction market platform
It’s this kind of language, and functionality resembling the submission of a betting ticket, that led State Representative Scot Matayoshi (with support from representatives Terez Amato, Andrew Garrett, Tina Grandinetti, and others) to introduce Hawaii House Bill 2198 (HB 2198) in early 2026. HB 2198 seeks to explicitly define online prediction markets as gambling, which would therefore make it illegal in The Aloha State. At press, HB 2198 is at 50% progression. Readers can follow its movement right here. Should HB 2198 come to pass, the proposed removal of CFTC control and subsequent ban (in Hawaii) would be the direct impact of the redefinition or prediction market trading as gambling. But there’s more to it.
Pointing Impacted Hawaii Residents to Support
From a mental and behavioral health perspective, redefinition – or even discussion about redefining sports contracts on prediction markets – could have a beneficial impact on the psyche of Hawaii residents. A recent, nationwide (including Hawaii) poll found that 61% of citizens view purchasing event contracts on prediction markets as closer to gambling than investing, while 81% of respondents believe that prediction market platforms should be regulated as gambling at the state level. HB 2198, whether it passes or otherwise, may provide greater clarity for those who may struggle to maintain a healthy relationship with the activity. It may better inform impacted Hawaii residents about where to get help.
But what if readers side with the CFTC and prediction market operators, and agree that sporting contracts are explicitly a trading activity, and not gambling? Does the conviction change elements of risk for those who are vulnerable to addictive behavior? A large body of research (view here and here) confirms that unhealthy trading closely resembles problem gambling. They each share core psychological and behavioral traits. These traits include chasing losses, a cognitive distortion of overconfidence, and loss of control, which can lead to severe financial and personal consequences. Experts note that excessive trading, especially in high-frequency day trading, functions as a behavioral addiction rather than a strategic financial activity. Recognizing this, support services for those who are unable to trade responsibly are often labelled as problem gambling support over problem trading support. The rationale is backed by how compromised Hawaii residents (and loved ones) perform search for support services on the islands. This is confirmed by referencing Google / Gemini AI data regarding search volume occurring from within the North Pacific archipelago:
Online outreach for a gambling help line outpaces that for unhealthy trading related queries ten-fold.
Whether Hawaii succeeds in redefining sporting contracts on prediction markets or not, Hawaii residents, or their ohana, who have developed an unhealthy relationship with the activity may now better understand where to get help. Treatment strategies for unhealthy trading align with those for problem gambling, which Hawaii residents can learn about and access right here. Those who need help now should call the gambling help line provided below. Assessments are FREE and ongoing treatment for unhealthy trading/gambling and cooccurring mental health issues is covered by insurance policies held by Hawaii residents.
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