Garrison at West Point, May 14, 1782
Dear Brother, Having an opportunity to write to you, I embrace it with infinite pleasure, hoping these few lines will find you in perfect health, as by the blessings of almighty God they leave me at this present time. As for news, I don’t know what to write. There is great talk of the war being almost over, but I believe it is as one of our men said to another one, “What news?” The other said, “The war is over, ain’t it?” The other said, “Yes, it is over all the world.” But you know as well as me about it. We had a man hanged here yesterday for mutiny in the Connecticut Line. He had his sentence read to him at 10 o’clock and was hanged at 12. It is very dull times.
About money: we have not drawn any money, yet no news of any. Remember my love to my parents, brothers, and sisters, and all inquiring friends, and all the Molls I am acquainted with. Brother, I should be much obliged to you if you would write to me. I did expect to receive one letter by Mr. Delney. Sergeant Withington had two by him. Paper is scarce. I have no money to buy more, so I conclude. I am, dear Brother, with respect, your loving brother until death.”
James Davenport, Light Company, 8th Mass. Regiment
From the American Revolution beginning in 1775 through to WW I, WW II, Vietnam, and the War in Afghanistan ending in 2021, young adult Americans would gather anxiously around taverns and public squares, awaiting news of conclusion to yet another conflict, hoping, perhaps naively so, that the last could be the last. As if the powers-that-be would finally learn some sort of lesson.
But now, the sentiment is different among a modest but growing segment of twenty- and thirty-somethings. Instead of pouring over a shared paper at the local newsstand, they gaze upon glowing screens that fit in the palm of the hands and morbidly anticipate the YES/NO outcomes of war. Some stand to make thousands of dollars, or more, if a new offensive is launched or a ceasefire fizzles. Where do their allegiances lie? Is it with servicepersons, like James Davenport from the Light Company, 8th Mass. Regiment (circa 1782), or in the prospect of covering rent for the next three months, should their prediction deliver a hefty windfall?
No one is hoping for war, mind you. The issue, is that young adult Americans are experiencing historic levels of pessimism regarding their economic futures, with over 80% describing the U.S. economy as “bad” or “terrible”, with little confidence in the government being able to do anything to restore faith. They are feeling about the same regarding U.S. involvement in global conflict. So when a financial instrument comes along that purports to offer a way out, by wagering on their own skepticism, it’s hard to blame them for capitalizing accordingly.
If you haven’t figured it out already, we’re talking about CFTC-regulated prediction markets. These platforms offers participants the option to buy and sell contracts on the outcomes of future events such as extreme weather, high-profile criminal trials, political elections, and as indicated – global conflicts. That’s correct, a number of Americans aged 18 and older are now trading on war on various prediction market platforms. At press, trades related to the current war in Iraq are approaching $1 billion with one particular operator. The opportunity for betting on war is nothing new, mind you. Offshore gambling operators have provided a place for Americans to wager on military operations under proposition-betting categories for more than a decade. The practice has now shifted out of the shadows and into the spotlight, with major media reporting prediction market options on global conflict with near weekly frequency.
From a pure financial decision making perspective, betting on war and other inarguably negative events is generally illogical. Recent data confirms that over 70% of prediction market traders lose money, and that more than three-quarters of all gains are captured by the top 1% of traders. From a public health perspective, it is also becoming increasingly known that prediction market involvement may relate to unhealthy behavior among vulnerable populations in the United States (view information). Today’s discussion, however, is about a potentially compounding mental health problem being posed by prediction market trades on war and other distressing events.
The Potential Problem with Betting or Trading on War and Other Distressing Events (for vulnerable persons)
Financialization of Doomscrolling
Doomscrolling as Market Research
Prediction markets allow participants to make trades, not just on pop-culture and sports, but on generally distressing events like war, sociopolitical unrest, and natural disasters. By financializing news updates related to such matters, it may be concluded that participants (traders) are encouraged to constantly monitor negative headlines. A trader may rationalize the behavior as a form of “market research”, and be drawn into a deep web of negative news cycles. The practice essentially gamifies the lure – or compulsion for some – to consume distressing information.
What we’re referring to here is the act of doomscrolling. It is a term used to describe the compulsive, habitual act of endlessly consuming negative, distressing, or alarming news on social media and online newsfeeds, despite exposure causing the user feelings of anxiety, stress, and/or depression. Doomscrolling triggers dopamine – the brain’s “reward” chemical -through unpredictable, bite-sized updates, creating a compulsive, slot-machine-like feedback loop. Each swipe or scroll offers a potential reward in the form of new and/or shocking information, which keeps the brain engaged even when consuming distressing content and leads to a cycle of overstimulation followed by depletion. You can read more about the public health problem of doomscrolling, including symptoms, vulnerabilities, and comorbidities right here, although what has been stated thus far paints a picture of where this discussion is headed.
Compounding Interest in Trading Behavior
Recognizing the habitual monitoring of distressing news can lead to unhealthy behavior, we now ask readers to recognize the layer of complexity involved when prediction markets add a potential financial incentive to engage in doomscrolling. Now remember, this incentivization is not guaranteed. There is risk involved in making trades on war or other event outcomes that is not dissimilar to the risk accepted when one makes a bet on college football or on a hand at blackjack. Who needs to be more mindful of this overlapping practice? A significant percentage of young adults (mostly males) face a higher risk of developing problematic behavior with online trading and gambling when compared to the general population. Additionally, a wide body of research confirms that this same group is at an elevated risk of increased gambling behavior during economic crises, driven by financial stress, a desire to recoup losses, and easy access offered by gambling (and trading) platforms. This demographic shows higher rates of problem behavior, which can accelerate financial distress, including decreased credit scores and higher bankruptcy rates.
Now let’s look at the big picture. On one hand, you have a vulnerable individual embroiled in potentially harmful trading activities during periods of economic strain, which can have them dig their heels into an already vicious cycle. Then, on the other hand, these same individuals are becoming hyper-focused on following and engaging with distressing news, further feeding feelings of anxiety, stress, and depression. The intersection of these behaviors can be overwhelming and compound cooccurring mental health concerns that they may already struggle with.
Is This You? Then Stop Betting on War
For many, the financial gamification of predicting war and other distressing events is more of a moral dilemma. For others who may be vulnerable to problem trading and/or doomscrolling behavior, it’s a place to draw a firm line. Who should be more mindful of involvement? As with many behavioral addictions relating to technology, problematic trading and doomscrolling can cooccur with and/or exacerbate various mental and behavioral health issues. If you deal with one or more of the issues below, abstinence is strongly recommended.
| Anxiety | Depression |
| Low Self Esteem | ADHD |
| OCD | Bipolar Disorder |
| PTSD | Sleep Disorders |
| Adverse Childhood Experiences | Suicidal Ideation and Self-Harm |
| Problem Gambling | Unhealthy Gaming |
| Hypersexuality | Other (ask Kindbridge) |
Do you struggle with problem trading, doomscrolling, or other unhealthy online behavior? Click below or call for a FREE assessment. Kindbridge counselors specialize in treating unhealthy trading along with cooccurring mental health issues.
Other Articles You May be Interested In: