By definition, cognitive distortions are faulty beliefs and perspectives that people have about themselves and/or the world around them. These irrational thoughts are typically reinforced over time and are often tethered to habitual participation in an activity that is associated with harms for vulnerable persons. Despite these harms, individuals will rationalize further involvement and fall deeper down a hole of despair.
Cognitive distortions in gambling are a well studied phenomenon among casino gamers who experience the illusion of control over a given outcome. It’s found among blackjack and poker players, but also in those who participate in games of pure chance such as roulette. Studies have even found that biased thoughts and beliefs are observed in non-gambling adults who try their hand in slots on a rare occasion. But this article will not explore the often discussed cognitive distortions in those who participate in land-based or online casino gaming. Instead, its target is sports bettors and daily fantasy sports (DFS) players who also exhibit dangerous thought patterns that influence their behavior. It asks them (you?) to be more mindful, and recognize when perception of luck, probability, and control are taking hold in an activity that is innately gamed against participants.
Cognitive Distortions to be Mindful of When Wondering if You Have a Problematic Relationship with Sports Betting or DFS
Gambler’s Fallacy
This term “gambler’s fallacy” headlines every discussion on cognitive distortions in gambling. The term is used to describe a psychological process which occurs when a gambler believes that a certain random occurrence is less likely or more likely to happen based on the outcome of a previous occurrence. In truth, the odds of any particular occurrence taking place is always the same.
The most basic example of where this is evident is a coin flip. For instance, most people believe that after three coin flips resulting in tails, heads must be due. In reality, the odds of heads or tails does not technically change. In sports betting, this “50/50” chance is evident if you wager on a match where sportsbooks set the odds at EVEN, or if you randomly bet the OVER/UNDER on a matchup just to complete your parlay. If you get on an unsuccessful run on one side of the EVEN or the OVER/UNDER, you might think that your luck has to change, and you’re bound to win on the next go around (or the next).
Hot Hand Fallacy
Returning to the coin toss analogy, people also believe that after correctly guessing three coin flips in a row, they are more likely to correctly guess the next outcome as well. This is referred to as the “hot hand fallacy”. It too can be applied to sports betting after someone wins their wagers in a short string of events.
You Have a Winning Strategy and Skillset
It is very common for sports bettors and DFS players to assume that over time, they have developed a strategy and skillset that increases their odds of winning. You may assume the same if you dedicate a significant portion of time towards analyzing player/team statistics, historical results in particular matchups, and even diving deep into minute details such as how a team performs in an outdoor setting during certain weather events and the like. Do you know who also does this, while being armed with artificial intelligence (AI) and other state-of-the-art technologies? Sports betting operators. They know what you know, and how so-called sharp sports bettors like you think. They adapt/adjust point spreads accordingly and change them right up until game-time as money comes in. In hedging their risk, the system is effectively gamed in their favor. It is why only 13.5% of seasoned sports bettors make it out with a profit, with the percentage declining the longer they play.
Overestimating the Best Odds
Have a look at this small sample of monthly Google searchers, per U.S. state, as they apply to “best” sports betting odds:
These searches are a small tip of a very large iceberg of semantics used by sports bettors and DFS players. They are in search of odds that they perceive will improve their odds of winning and increase their return on a wager. Operators and sports betting affiliates access this information and market their odds accordingly. The reality, is that any differences are negligible, and as game time approaches bookmakers change their odds in order to account for new information.
Meanwhile, offshore operators are known to make unfounded claims about their odds being better. For example, they may entice sharp sports bettors with -105 odds versus the standard -110 (equating a lower buy-in to win the same amount of money) but hide erroneous requirements such as a high-rollover in their dark pattern UX design.
You Remember the Wins More Than the Losses
One very common cognitive distortion in sports betting is to selectively remember wins while not giving equal weight to the significantly larger number of losses experienced. Sports bettors boast of a $5000 payout on a parlay to their buddies, but neglect to mention the $50,000 losses incurred to get there. Every time you look fondly upon “big wins”, remind yourself about each and every one of the losses that preceded and followed.
You Believe in Expert Picks and Predictions
An entire industry (within an industry) has been created around sports betting and DFS expert picks and predictions. Sports news publishers have become sportsbook referral affiliate companies, purporting to be staffed with a team of authorities that will help readers and subscribers increase their odds of winning. Every day they infiltrate the Google News feed with their educated picks against the spread, instilling within their audience a false sense of increased odds of winning their wagers. Not only is the logic weak based on the fact that everyone has access to this “intel”, it’s also a conflict of interest because they (or their publishers) generate revenue-share from partner sportsbook operators.
Do you recognize any of the above in your perception of luck, probability, and control in sports betting or DFS? Is it accompanied by any combination of these signs and symptoms of problem gambling? If so, find peace of mind in that these cognitive distortions can be corrected via cognitive behavioral therapy. Schedule a FREE assessment via your preferred form of contact below.
Concerned About Your Relationship with Sports Betting?
CALL +1 (877) 426-4258
OR
Email [email protected]
